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GEMPACK 11.2 - 一般均衡模型软件
GEMPACK 12 - 一般均衡模型软件


 

 

 
  GTAP Data Base -全球贸易分析(GTAP)数据库

GTAP 10 Data Base 发布!

全球贸易分析项目(GTAP)是一个研究人员和决策者进行国际政策问题的定量分析的全球网络。 GTAP是由Purdue UniversityDepartment of Agricultural Economics中的Center for Global Trade Analysis协调。

全球贸易分析模型(GTAP Model)是根据新古典经济理论设计的多国多部门应用一般均衡模型。由美国普渡大学教授ThomasW.Hertel所领导的全球贸易分析项目(Global Trade Analysis Project,GTAP)发展出来的,目前已被广泛应用于贸易政策的分析。在GTAP模型架构中,首先建立可详细描述对每个国家(或地区)生产、消费、政府支出等行为的子模型,然后通过国际间商品贸易之关系,将各子模型连结成一个多国多部门的一般均衡模型。在此模型架构中进行政策仿真时,可以同时探讨该政策对各国各部门生产、进出口、商品价格、要素供需、要素报酬、国内生产总值及社会福利水平变化等。

由于GTAP模型对政策定量分析具有良好效果,能够对政策选择和决策提供具体并且比较准确的建议,当今世界主要经济组织,如世界贸易组织,国际货币基金组织,世界银行等都已经采用GTAP模型对国际经济进行分析,并且获得了良好的结果。随着中国与国际社会关系的不断紧密,各项政策,措施,以及分析工具与世界接轨显得尤为必要。通过运用GTAP模型模拟中国对外经贸发展及其政策变化,及相关影响,从而对政策选择提供定量的评价和建议,并结合北京市经济发展提供对策,具有重要的理论价值和现实指导意义。

什么是GTAP 10数据库?

全球贸易分析项目的核心是GTAP数据库,这是一个完整记录的公开全球数据库,包含完整的双边贸易信息,运输和保护联系。 GTAP数据库代表了世界经济,并被全世界成千上万的数据库用作对全球经济问题的大多数应用一般均衡(AGE)分析的关键输入。

特别说明(2019-7-31):目前,我们正在公布最新参考年份2014年的数据。 我们预计其他参考年份(2004年,2007年和2011年)的更新数据将在2周内提供。

新用户

GTAP数据库是预先确定的参考年度的世界经济的一致代表。在数据库的基础上,有几个数据来源,其中包括:国家投入产出(I-O)表,贸易,宏观经济,能源和保护数据。基础投入产出表在来源、方法、基准年和部门细节方面是异质的,因此为了实现一致性,已做出大量努力以使不同来源具有可比性。出于这些原因,GTAP数据库的目标不是提供I-O表,而是为了促进经济模拟模型的运行,确保用户获得一致的经济事实。一些对特定社会会计矩阵(SAM)感兴趣的用户使用网络中的研究人员编写的实用程序来提取它们。基于此信息构建I-O表的用户在自己承担风险的情况下这样做,并且假设他们理解数据库构建过程所施加的限制。

GTAP数据库不是经济变量的关系数据库。 只为比较目的而对经济数据感兴趣的用户可以通过诸如世界银行发展指标(WDI),国际货币基金组织(IMF)金融统计或粮食及农业组织(FAO)统计数据等来源获得更好的服务,仅举几例。 GTAP数据库中的数据准确地描述了经济变量的大小,但它们是根据可计算一般均衡(CGE)建模的总量来表示的。

GTAP 10数据库文档第1章和第2章对新用户特别有用,可以了解GTAP数据库中包含的内容及其结构。 GTAP数据库旨在与GTAP模型一起使用,通常通过RunGTAP软件运行。 在运行模型之前,用户应使用随数据库提供的GTAPAgg2(或FlexAgg)程序将数据(区域,商品和endowments)聚合到期望水平,然后使用经济模型(例如,GTAP或GTAPinGAMS) 分析全球政策的影响(贸易,环境,移民政策通常被审查)。 或者,用户可能对从单一国家模型的GTAP数据库中提取国家SAM或I-O表感兴趣。

GTAP Data Base在世界各地的被大量使用,是一个对全球经济问题应用当代一般均衡分析(general equilibrium analysis)的关键输入。最新版,GTAP 10 Data Base包含了参考年份2004,2007,2011年和2014年,以及141区域的所有65种GTAP商品的数据。

The centerpiece of the Global Trade Analysis Project is the GTAP Data Base, a fully documented, publicly available global data base which contains complete bilateral trade information, transport and protection linkages. The GTAP Data Base represents the world economy and is utilized by thousands worldwide as a key input into contemporary applied general equilibrium (AGE) analysis of global economic issues. The current release, the GTAP 9 Data Base, features 2004, 2007 and 2011 reference years as well as 140 regions for all 57 GTAP commodities. 

The GTAP Data Base is most commonly used with the GTAP Model and RunGTAP software. First, the user must aggregate the data (regions, commodities and endowments) using the GTAPAgg (or FlexAgg) program provided with the data base to the desired level and then use with the GTAP or GTAPinGams model/s to analyze the impact of global policies (trade, environmental, migration policies are commonly examined). Alternatively a user may be interested in extracting country SAMs or I-O tables from the GTAP Data Base for single country models. If you are interested in these alternative uses of the GTAP Data Base, we suggest you read through the points detailed on this page about what GTAP Data Base is not.


GTAP 10最新更新

  • Four reference years: 2004, 2007, 2011 and 2014.
  • Additional regional disaggregation: 141 regions and 65 sectors
  • New and Updated Regions
    In version 10, each regional economy is represented by 65 sectors, an increase from the previous 57 sectors’ representation available since GTAP 6. These 65 sectors are redefined using the latest CPC and ISIC classifications (See Chapter 2 for concordances). Tajikistan is a new primary region added to GTAP 10.
    Primary regions are the countries for which we have national input-output (I-O) tables. Composite regions are geographical-region-based combinations of countries with no contributed I-O tables. In addition, updated input-output tables for regions that are already in the data base were also incorporated in GTAP 10. Since version 9, 50 more recent I-O tables have been incorporated.
  • In GTAP 10 we also begin to match I-O tables’ base year to their closest GTAP reference year. For the majority of countries in GTAP we still use a single I-O table. We look forward to more frequent contributions so we can capture structural changes over time.
  • Macroeconomic aggregates (GDP, private consumption, government consumption, and investment) are used in updating the input-output tables to common reference years 2004, 2007, 2011 and 2014. The primary source of macroeconomic data used in the GTAP 10 Data Base is the World Bank.
  • As in previous versions of the GTAP Data Base, reconciled bilateral merchandise trade data, based on data from COMTRADE, was contributed by Mark Gehlhar of U.S. Department of Interior. Documentation on the reconciliation procedure is available online. Significant improvements that had been made to the
    bilateral services trade data in GTAP 7 as a result of the efforts of Nico van Leeuwen and Arjan Lejour from the CPB, have been further carried forward to GTAP 10 Data Base, for 2004, 2007, 2011 and 2014
  • For version 10, the IEA energy volume, taxes and prices data has been incorporated for the years 2004, 2007, 2011 and 2014.

GTAP 10 Data Base中包含什么?

GTAP 10数据库的购买者将获得以下电子访问权限:

  • GTAP 10 Data Base Documentation
  • GTAPAgg2
    GTAPAgg2 is an updated version of the GTAPAgg software package developed by Mark Horridge at the Centre of Policy Studies, for use in creating aggregated data bases from the fully disaggregated GTAP Data Base. Nearly all applications of the GTAP Model use an aggregation of the data base. The software helps you prepare an aggregation scheme, then uses your scheme to prepare an aggregated data base for the GTAP Model, as well as aggregated time-series and GTAPView data. The GTAPAgg2 program has been redesigned to handle multiple GTAP Data Bases.
  • GTAPAgg
    GTAPAgg is a software package developed by Mark Horridge at the Centre of Policy Studies, for use in creating aggregated data bases from the fully disaggregated GTAP Data Base. Nearly all applications of the GTAP Model use an aggregation of the data base. The software helps you prepare an aggregation scheme, then uses your scheme to prepare an aggregated data base for the GTAP Model, as well as aggregated time-series and GTAPView data. The GTAPAgg Package includes an encrypted version of the latest release of the GTAP Data Base. Please note that the main data file in the GTAPAgg package, basedata.hrx, is encrypted. It can only be used with GTAPAgg since decryption is performed together with the aggregation.
  • FlexAgg
    FlexAgg is a command-line aggregation program for use in creating aggregated data bases from the fully disaggregated GTAP Data Base. The FlexAgg program performs the same task as the GTAPAgg program. However, GTAPAgg has a user friendly windows interface, while FlexAgg uses a batch file to run a series of GEMPACK executable files. For most users of the GTAP Data Base, the GTAPAgg program, with its user friendly windows interface, is both easier to use and sufficient for most purposes. In some special cases however, experienced users may want to modify the GTAP Data Base and use the FlexAgg program to aggregate their modified data.

The GTAP Data Base is NOT

  • a repository of Input-Output tables. The GTAP Data Base is a consistent representation of the world economy in the year base of the current version. Underlying the data base there are national input-output tables, trade, macroeconomic, and protection data from several sources. The underlying input-output tables are heterogeneous in sources, base years, and sectoral detail, thus for achieving consistency, substantial efforts are made to make the disparate sources comparable. For these reasons, the objective of the GTAP Data Base is not to provide IO tables, but to facilitate the operation of economic simulation models ensuring users a consistent set of economic facts. Some users interested in particular SAM use utilities written by researchers in the network to extract them. Users building IO tables based on this information do that under their own risk, and are assumed to understand the limitations imposed by the process of data base construction.
  • a repository of time series on economic data. Except for trade data, the GTAP Data Base is a cross-section of consistent data on consumption, production, and trade. Some users assume that binding together different versions of the data base will give them time-series variation. The users considering to do this are strongly encouraged to get familiar with the processes underlying the construction of the GTAP Data Base, and to take into account that for many countries, the underlying IO tables do not change from version to version --- most of the variability comes from adjustment processes based on macroeconomic/trade changes.
  • a relational data base of economic variables. Users interested in economic data only for comparative purposes are better served by sources such as the World bank Development Indicators, the IMF's financial statistics, or the FAO's agricultural statistics, to name a few. The data in the GTAP Data Base accurately depicts the magnitudes of economic variables, but they are presented in terms of the aggregates that serve CGE modeling.

最小系统需求

至少2GB内存, Microsoft 7, 8,10. 

 

 

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